Central Asia, defined as the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, became a stronghold for authoritarianism and dictatorship following the fall of the USSR in 1991. Recently, however, major political events in the region, such as the June 2019 presidential election in Kazakhstan that ended Nursultan Nabayev’s thirty-year rule point to the potential for a shift towards more democratic governance. Nonetheless, both China and Russia’s immense influence in the region pose as a potential threat to a democratic transition. 

Central Asia, prior to Russian domination and Soviet rule, was populated mainly by ethnic groups of Iranian and Turkic origins who practiced Islam and participated heavily in the Silk Road trade route. During the mid-19th century, Central Asia was conquered by the Russian empire and as a result, many ethnic Russians, as well as Ukrainians moved into the region. This migration pattern continued throughout World War II and the rise of the USSR. Today, there are around seven million ethnic Russians remaining in Central Asia, amounting to 10% of the region’s population.

In the early 20th century, Soviet officials implemented a forced cultural assimilation agenda in Central Asia and other Soviet-bloc regions known as “Russification”. Under Russification policies, expressions of local culture (namely language) as well as nationalist political discourse were harshly repressed. In addition, the USSR also attempted to harness Central Asia’s vast deposits of natural resources by engaging in forced collectivization attempts that ultimately failed.

Following the fall of the USSR in 1992 and the subsequent independence of all five Central Asian countries, Communist regimes, led by local strongmen, remained in power and continued to govern with an iron fist. While most Central Asian countries held elections post-independence and established parliaments, few were free and fair and authoritarian regimes became the norm. As of 2019,  Freedom House categorizes four out of the five Central Asian countries are categorized as “unfree”, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan being categorized as “partly free”.

In terms of economic growth, the Central Asian republics have not fared well. Despite their large reserves of natural resources, all five republics are landlocked and therefore have no access to sea routes to transport and effectively trade these resources. As a result, their economies are quite dependent on those of Russia and China, as any sea access requires going through the neighboring superpowers. 

Central Asia’s unstable history with democracy post-independence marked by fraudulent elections (such as the 2007 presidential elections in Uzbekistan), ethnic tensions among local populations and Russians, and despotic dictators (like the former Turkmenistan president who mandated that all students read his autobiography and renamed the months after himself) has produced a reputation for the region as a stronghold of authoritarian regimes [1]. Therefore, established democracies such as the United States and EU countries have put very little emphasis on Central Asia in their foreign policies, despite the potential for democratic transition and economic development. However, just in the past two years, major political developments in the region have begun to challenge and break down those notions. 

Most notably, Kazakhstan held presidential elections in June 2019 following the resignation of President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had been in power for 29 years, and elected Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a career diplomat, with 71% of the vote. Although the election process was not perfect, Daniel Witt and Ariel Cohen, two US independent election observers, see the elections as “a step forward for reform in a long-term evolutionary process” and “years ahead of its [Central Asian] neighbors [2]”. Similarly, in 2017, Kyrgyzstan held presidential elections that were deemed “competitive” by election watchers and resulted in the election of a new president [3]. In the human rights realm, Uzbekistan made groundbreaking changes by closing the Jaslyk Prison, a detention center notorious for its terrible human rights abuses, in August 2019. 

These examples coupled with the emergence of some Central Asian countries into the energy market, although seemingly minor, reflect a trend towards creating more open, progressive, and democratic societies and the growing desire for Central Asia to change its image on the global stage [4]. The next question is, with China and Russia’s growing presence in the region, can democracy persist?